November flash: +3.0% y/y
MNI survey median: +3.0% y/y
MNI survey range: +2.8% to +3.1% y/y
October final: +3.0% y/y
FRANKFURT (MNI) – As expected, Eurozone consumer prices inflation
held firm at 3.0% for the third consecutive month in November, Eurostat
reported on Wednesday, citing preliminary forecasts.
November’s annual rate suggests a negligible monthly rise of
0.008%. An official breakdown, which will include the monthly change as
well as core rates, will be made available on December 15.
State data out of Germany showed a strong annual rise in energy
prices. Spanish figures also pointed to energy price developments
underpinning the overall CPI growth rate, along with higher lubricant
prices.
“While inflation has remained elevated and is likely to stay above
2% for some months to come, inflation rates are expected to decline
further in the course of 2012 to below 2%,” European Central Bank
President Mario Draghi said earlier this month following the Council’s
decision to reduce its main refinancing rate to 1.25%.
In an environment of economic uncertainty and downside risks,
“price, cost and wage pressures in the euro area should also moderate,”
Draghi continued.
The latest ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters supports this
assessment, as inflation is projected to slow to +1.8% in 2012 and 2013
from an average rate of +2.6% expected this year.
Despite a slight pick-up in input prices in November, price
pressures remained subdued, a PMI poll showed. Input price inflation
remained below the high levels earlier this year, while widespread price
competition kept output price growth relatively contained.
Next week, the ECB will release updated staff projections for GDP
growth and inflation, including forecasts for 2013. The latest
projections pointed to average inflation of 2.5% to 2.7% this year and
1.2% to 2.2% in 2012.
— Frankfurt bureau, +49-69-720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com —
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