By Steven K. Beckner

WASHINGTON (MNI) – If the Group of 20 finance ministers and central
bankers hoped to reassure financial markets with their Thursday night
communique, then the G20, like the Federal Reserve before it, was sorely
disappointed.

This should come as no great surprise, especially since the G20
employed some of the same rhetoric about worsening “downside risks”
which the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee used in
justifying new monetary stimulus measures on Wednesday afternoon. And
the measures to address those “downside risks” are frankly distrusted.

It’s not just a matter of verbiage. Markets appear to be suffering
from a breakdown of confidence in policymakers on both sides of the
Atlantic. That is particularly true, perhaps, of fiscal authorities, but
it also holds true for central banks.

This is not exactly the golden age of monetary policy, even though
its definitely an era of monetary activism.

There is a growing sense of the limits of what the peripatetic Fed,
the European Central Bank and others can do and mounting doubts about
the efficacy of their increasingly desperate efforts to spur growth,
reduce unemployment and stabilize markets.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke conceded those limits in an Aug. 26
speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s annual symposium in
Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

After talking about the importance of “putting people back to work”
in the short-term for the longer term benefit of the nation, Bernanke
said, “Notwithstanding this observation, which adds urgency to the need
to achieve a cyclical recovery in employment, most of the economic
policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside
the province of the central bank.”

Notwithstanding those acknowledged limits, the Fed has continued to
tinker.

Since the FOMC met, U.S. stocks have fallen some 6%, and equities
have fared even worse overseas. They appear headed for another down day
on Wall Street in the early going Friday.

This despite the efforts of the Fed and the G20 to calm investors.

A divided FOMC announced it will buy $400 billion of longer term
Treasury securities (6 to 30 years) by the end of June 2012, financed by
sales of shorter term securities. It also announced that, instead of
reinvesting principal payments of agency and agency-guaranteed mortgage
backed securities in Treasuries, it will reinvest in MBS.

In explaining the actions, the FOMC policy statement pointed to
“slow” economic growth and “continuing weakness in overall labor market
conditions.” And looking forward, it cited “significant downside risks
to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

The FOMC gave every indication that it is not through trying to
revive the economy from its coma. There is a high likelihood that the
FOMC will resort to a third round of quantitative easing unless economic
conditions unexpectedly improve markedly.

The Fed’s actions Wednesday succeeded in their aim of lowering
long-term interest rates, particularly mortgage rates, but at
considerable cost to household wealth.

As if to reinforce the Fed’s gloomy message Thursday night, the
G20, of which Bernanke was a participant, twice referred to “heightened
downside risks” in an unplanned communique.

Actions by the Fed and the ECB are not taking place in a vacuum, of
course. In the U.S., the pre-election fiscal quagmire has continued to
get muckier, as President Obama followed his controversial $$447 billion
American Jobs Act with a $3 trillion-plus “deficit reduction” plan that
is very heavy on higher taxes in an economy teetering on the edge of
renewed recession.

But the G20 communique uncritically states that the U.S. and other
major nations are “taking strong actions to maintain financial
stability, restore confidence and support growth.”

“The U.S. has put forward a significant package to strengthen
growth and employment through public investments, tax incentives, and
targeted jobs measures, combined with fiscal reforms designed to restore
fiscal sustainability over the medium term,” it avers in a statement
that would meet with considerable skepticism in many quarters.
Certainly, the markets are not impressed.

The communique also says that “in Europe, Euro area countries have
taken major actions to ensure the sustainability of public finances, and
are implementing the decisions taken by Euro area Leaders on 21 July
2011. Specifically, the euro area will have implemented by the time of
our next meeting the necessary actions to increase the flexibility of
the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) and to maximize its
impact in order to address contagion.”

But the 17-member euro-zone is even more divided than the FOMC, and
there is no confidence that beefing up or making more flexible the 440
billion euro EFSF will solve the intractable fiscal tensions that exist
between Germany, France and the peripheral European nations. Meanwhile,
purchases of sovereign debt are reflecting so badly on the ECB’s
credibility that they induced its chief economist Juergen Stark,
Germany’s top official at the ECB, to resign recently.

Whatever bailouts and bandaids are applied, the ongoing reality is
that Greece, Italy, Spain and others are running unsustainable budget
deficits which will be very difficult politically to contain, which will
put European and U.S. financial institutions at risk and which will
strain the common currency system to the breaking point.

The G20 assert that they are “committed to supporting growth,
implementing credible fiscal consolidation plans, and ensuring strong,
sustainable and balanced growth” through “a collective and bold action
plan.”

And they “commit to take all necessary actions to preserve the
stability of banking systems and financial markets as required. We will
ensure that banks are adequately capitalized and have sufficient access
to funding to deal with current risks and that they fully implement
Basel III along the agreed timelines.”

“Central Banks will continue to stand ready to provide liquidity to
banks as required,” the communique goes on. “Monetary policies will
maintain price stability and continue to support economic recovery.”

But weary financial market participants have heard these kinds of
pledges before … ad nauseum.

Central banking in a fiat currency era is ultimately a
confidence game, and sound monetary policy ultimately depends on sound
fiscal policy. The markets perceive that the game may be just about up.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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