Flash Jan CPI: -0.4% m/m, +2.0% y/y
MNI median forecast: -0.4% m/m, +2.0% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.5% to -0.2% m/m
Final Dec CPI: +0.7% m/m, +2.1% y/y
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BERLIN (MNI) – German consumer prices fell 0.4% on the month in
January, dampening the annual inflation rate to +2.0% from +2.1%, the
Federal Statistical Office estimated Monday.
The monthly result is in line with the median forecast for
pan-German CPI in a MNI survey of analysts.
As usual, the Federal Statistics Office provided few details on
price developments with the flash release. It pointed to data from
reporting states that showed annual price developments were again marked
by strong price increases of household energy and motor fuel.
The FSO will release final January inflation data on Feb 10.
Inflation pressures in Germany are expected to continue easing over
the coming months on the back of slowing domestic and global economic
growth as well as falling energy prices.
Earlier this month, the German government predicted annual
inflation in Germany would ease to 1.8% this year.
The German Bundesbank last month also forecast an annual inflation
rate of 1.8% in 2012, pointing to easing domestic price pressure and
decelerating global commodity prices. For 2013, the central bank
projected inflation to slow further to 1.5%.
“Risks to the inflation outlook primarily stem from oil prices and
exchange rates,” the Bundesbank said. “Given the projected global
economic developments, it is quite possible that the oil prices will not
ease significantly but will remain at current levels.” A more pronounced
global slowdown, on the other hand, could exert downward pressure on
commodity prices, it said.
–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com
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