–Earnings, Hours Gain: Production & Income Should Rise
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. October employment report contains a
few rays of light, but overall paints a picture of a still-weak economy
that will keep pressure on policy officials to stimulate.
October payrolls printed +80,000 but up-revisions to September and
August totaled +102,000 — about 5/8 the size of their recent prints.
Huge revisions are sometimes signs of turning points in the labor
market. A Bureau of Labor Statistics economist said the revisions were
broadly based.
The average gain in nonfarm payrolls over the past twelve months
was +125,000, and even with revisions, the recent trend appears to
remain close to this number.
The overall civilian unemployment rate remains elevated at 9.0% but
fell 0.1 point over the month, on improvement in teen and women’s
unemployment.
Hours rose and private Average Hourly Earnings gained 3 cents for
+1% over the year, implying income and production gains over the year.
Private payrolls printed +104,000. These numbers were +191,000 in
September and +72,000 in August, so the gain actually falls short of the
prior two months’ +132,000 average.
Payroll composition included: manufacturing +5,000, construction
-20,000, retail +17,800, finance +4,000, leisure +22,000 (+12,800 in
restaurants), healthcare +11,600, but government -24,000 as state and
local education fell. Temporary help was +15,000.
Overall, the data were not so bad but also not yet robust enough
to alter the outlook.
Details: Payrolls/Prior Pv AHE,yoy Agg Hrs Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd
Oct +80k —- +1.02% 101.7 9.0% (9.0124%)
Sep +158k +103k +1.99% 101.3r 9.1% (9.0847%)
Aug +104k +57k +1.78% 100.8 9.1% (9.0935%)
** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **
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