–Pvt AHE +1c;Hrs Rise, Indic Gaining IP & Income; Payroll Benchmk -366k
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The snapshot from the U.S. September employment
report did not boost the outlook, implying a still dismal labor market
that will cause economic recovery to remain painfully slow and will not
stand in the way of further economic stimulus.
Key September employment data show more of the same: slow growth or
special factors causing declines. Payrolls printed -95,000 overall and
July-August were revised -15,000 in total. The preliminary March 2010
payroll benchmark is -366,000, suggesting weakness from uncaptured data.
September private payrolls printed +64,000, after a revised +93,000
in August. This was precisely the same as the 6-month average of
+64,000, and is too slow to generate a substantial dip in unemployment.
The high civilian unemployment rate of 9.6% was little changed
among groups. It dipped only slightly before rounding.
Total private Average Hourly Earnings gained one cent for a modest
+2.1% over the year, but hours gained. This is not a great result but
it suggests wages and production probably rose. The gain in hours
instead of hiring is another reason unemployment is not falling.
September payrolls included: Government -159k (-77k temp census
jobs, -76k local govt in worst showing since 1956, -7k state, +1k
Federal, and almost 58k of the losses were in education), manufacturing
-6k, construction -21k, information -5k, finance -1k. Retail was +5.7k,
leisure +38k, healthcare +28k, and temp jobs +16.9k.
Details: Payrolls/Prior AHE,yoy Agg Hrs Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd
Sep -95k —- +2.1% 99.6 9.6% (9.5791%)
Aug -57k -54k —– 99.5 9.6% (9.6425%)
Jul -66k -54k —– 99.2 9.5% (9.5070%)
** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$,MT$$$$,MAUDR$]