–Earnings, Hours Gain, Production & Income Should Rise
By Joseph Plocek
WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. September employment report, along with
revisions to prior periods, paint a picture of a still-weak economy,
even as August’s prevasive problems were revised away.
The September payroll gain of +103,000 is at high end of
expectations but includes +45,000 returning telecommunications strikers.
That means it’s inflated and a truer picture of the gain might show
half the advance.
Private payrolls were +137,000 in September after +42,000 in
August. After adjusting for the strike, the pace is about +80,000 a
month.
Upward revisions to August and July payrolls total +99,000.
Job gains remain centered in a few private industries. Government
jobs posted -34,000 as local education fell 24,400 (unadjusted, these
jobs soared 818,100).
The September payroll composition included: manufacturing -13,000
in its biggest drop since 2010, construction in a surprise +26,000,
retail +13,600, finance -8,000, health +43,800.
Private Average Hourly Earnings gained 3 cents to +2% over the
year, and hours jumped, both good signs of rising production and
incomes.
As always, the overall September payroll seasonal adjustment was
severe, cutting a 519,000 unadjusted payroll gain by more than 400,000.
The overall unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1%, showing the
economy is still stressed, but this includes a downshift for adult men.
The bottom line is the economy slowed in the last six months, with
average job gains of +72,000 after +161,000 for the prior seven months.
That should be enough to assure additional stimulus.
Details: Payrolls/Prior Pv AHE,yoy Agg Hrs Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd
Sep +103k —- +1.99% 101.2 9.1% (9.0847%)
Aug +57k Unch +1.78% 100.8r 9.1% (9.0935%)
Jul +127k +85k +2.31% 101.0 9.1% (9.0917%)
** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **
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