Seasonally adjusted results:

February: +E3.7 billion

MNI survey median: +E4.4 billion
MNI survey range: +E3.1 bln to +E4.9 bln

January: +E5.3 bln (+E5.9 bln)
December: +E7.1 bln (+E7.4 bln)
November: +E4.5 bln (+E5.4 bln)
October: +E0.2 bln (+E0.3 bln)
September: +E1.9 bln (+E1.6 bln)

Non-seasonally adjusted results:

February: +E2.8 billion
January: -E7.9 bln (-E7.6 bln)
December: +E8.4 bln (+E9.1 bln)
November: +E5.6 bln (+E6.0 bln)
October: E0.0 bln (+E0.1 bln)
September: +E1.9 bln (+E1.8 bln)
—

PARIS (MNI) – Eurozone exports gained further momentum in February,
but faster growth in imports trimmed the seasonally adjusted trade
surplus more than generally expected to a four-month low of E3.7 billion
from the recent peak of E7.1 billion in December, Eurostat said Monday.

Exports rose 2.4% on the month after +1.6% in January and +1.1% in
December. Imports surged 3.5% following a 3.0% rebound in January from
December’s 0.6% dip.

In unadjusted terms, the trade balance swung back to a surplus of
E2.8 billion after falling into the red in January for the first time
since August. Exports bounced back 8.2% on the month, more than
retracing the setback in January, and were 11% higher on the year.
Imports edged up 0.5% on the month for a 7% annual gain.

Unadjusted data for January show the Eurozone’s energy imports up
12% on the year, boosting the energy deficit to nearly E30 billion. Raw
material imports were 4% lower on the year for a trade shortfall of E3
billion. Manufactured goods exports in January were 9% higher on the
year for a surplus of nearly E23 billion. Exports to China were up 16%
on the year, while imports grew by only 2%.

The Eurozone benefited from fairly dynamic global trade last year,
which boosted exports, while subdued domestic demand limited import
growth. Exports outpaced imports through 3Q and fell less steeply than
imports in 4Q as global demand faltered, thanks to domestic de-stocking.
As a result, foreign trade contributed 0.3 point to GDP growth in each
quarter, offsetting much of the weakness in investment and consumption.

The factory PMIs show export orders contracting since last July and
still far from stabilizing in March (48.4). Manufacturers’ assessment of
export order books has recovered somewhat since November’s trough, the
European Commission’s surveys show.

The IMF expects global trade to expand by only 3.8% this year after
+6.9% in 2011. While demand from emerging economies would remain fairly
robust (+7.1% after +11.3%), external demand in advanced economies would
be even more sluggish (+2.0% after +4.8%), dampening the pace of export
growth in advanced countries (+2.4% after +5.5%).

With global trade expansion slowing, its contribution to GDP growth
in Europe “will most probably diminish in 2012,” the Commission
predicted in its interim economic outlook.

On the import side, prospects for a further contraction in Eurozone
activity at the start of this year and only a timid recovery in the
second half suggest that import demand will remain subdued as well.
While little relief from costly oil is likely as long as tensions over
Iran persist and the euro remains weak, prices for other commodities
could be dampened by slowing global demand. The IMF has forecast a 14%
decline in non-oil commodity costs this year.

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$XDS$]