–Unemploy Rate Dips as Does Labor Force; Hours-Wages Gain

By Joseph Plocek

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. April employment report was mixed,
marking another modest month of growth after jobs slowed in the spring.

April payrolls printed +115,000 but February-March revisions
totaled +53,000, putting the overall picture about as expected.
(Analysts had expected about +165,000 April jobs.)

The unemployment rate continued to fall, and was down another 0.1
point to 8.1%, a low since 7.8% in January 2009. But that reflected
further slippage in labor force participation, now 63.6%, a low since
1981. While it is possible alterations in demographics see the Baby Boom
generation retiring early because of slow hiring, this trend remains
disturbing.

Payrolls included: manufacturing +16,000, construction -2,000,
retail +29,300 (though the Labor Department said there was “no
definitive trend in recent months” for stores and +4,600 was in home
stores where weather was better), healthcare +19,000, restaurants
+19,700, and temporary help +21,100.

Transportation printed -16,600, and included -11,000 for ground
passenger transport. A Bureau of Labor Statistics economist noted the
Easter school holiday fell in the reference period, and said layoffs of
school bus drivers could have accounted for the dip.

Government posted -15,000 jobs, mainly in local education. This
meant private payrolls printed +130,000.

Private Average Hourly Earnings rose 3 cents and hours gained,
foretelling rises in incomes and production ahead.

So overall this report suggests more modest growth. Jobs have
averaged +135,000 in the last two months, compared with +229,000 a
month from November to February. This suggests either a repeat slowing
of the U.S. economy in spring or an on-going problem with properly
adjusting data for warm weather and Easter.

Details: Payrolls/Prior Pv AHE,yoy Agg Hrs Civ Unempl Rt/Unrnd
Apr +115k —- +1.70% 103.6 8.1% (8.0977%)
Mar +154k +120k +1.76% 103.5r 8.2% (8.1916%)
Feb +259k +240k +1.60% 103.3 8.3% (8.2688%)

** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

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