The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on May 7 (Tuesday next week)
- Announcement will come at 2.30pm Sydney time, which is 0430GMT.
Expectations for a rate cut at this meeting are high,
- but not unanimous
- and for more not unanimous, here
Ahead of the meeting are two pieces of data due this week, although I don't expect either of them to be overly significant for the RBA decision:
- Private sector credit for March is due on Tuesday 30 April
- Building approvals for March is due on Friday 3 May
As a reminder of what the Reserve Bank of Australia is looking at for its rate decisions, the most recent minutes (the April meetings) say that a rate cut will be appropriate if
- "inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up.".
How's that looking?
- Most recent CPI data shows inflation is not moving up (its falling).
- Most recent jobs data shows unemployment is stable. It ticked up from 4.9% to 5.0% but one month is not a trend.
But if the RBA put on their forward looking hats they'll be seeing continuing low, if not further falls for, inflation. And perhaps developing indications the jobs market is not going to power ahead like it has been.
Is the case strong enough for a rate cut? Or will the Bank hold off again? They could instead move to a more explicit easing bias as some sort of acknowledgement of the case for cuts instead of cutting in May. If the Bank sustains what I have called a complacent attitude (over many months, nay years, of missing target on one of their only two mandates) they'll sit pat. But maybe Lowe will think its time for some action.
Let's see if the upcoming data helps us out on deciding which way they'll swing.
