The AUDJPY has a triple top (give or take a few pips) at the 88.618 area. The trendline from the March 7th low was broken. The trendline from March 13th was broken. The 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) was broken, the 200 hour MA was broken but snapped back.
There are a number of reasons to expect the last trend move higher is over. However, the bounce off the 200 hour MA says to me that there still is some doubt (or perhaps temporary apprehension). Traders will likely look to sell against the 100 hour MA (blue line) which is currently at the 87.98 level (this is a condition I call trading between the Goal Posts with the goal posts defined as the 100 and 200 hour MAs). That would be the stop for sellers at least. What is hoped is the trend higher is over and a break of the 200 hour MA confirms the move to the downside. On a break of the 200 hour MA, a move through the 38.2% in the chart above at the 87.15 would be needed to really open up the downside for further corrective damage.
Looking at the 5 minute chart below, aggressive sellers looking for the bearish break lower, may look at the current level for resistance. The 87.71 level is the 100 hour MA and staying below the level would be indicative of sellers still in charge. So far that level is holding.
