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With thanks to ANZ, their outlook (from Daniel Been, Senior FX Strategist) for the AUD/USD and AUD crosses.
In brief (any errors in this summary are mine, BTW), the key points:
- As domestic fundamentals continue to show signs of stabilisation, the trajectory of the USD is becoming an increasingly important driver of the AUD ... recent business confidence and employment prints have both signalled that there is some possibility that Q1 will represent a trough for growth in Australia.
- This week, the Federal Reserve meeting will be the biggest focus, though we do not expect a drastic message change and as such think the AUD will remain within its recent range
- AUD/NZD can continue to outperform in this environment