Yesterday the AUDUSD rallied – with expectations of stronger than expected China GDP. That did not happen as the GDP came in lower than expectations. Yet the AUDUSD has done ok on relative basis today. Over the last few, however, the downside has started to accelerate.

  • The price is now back below the 200 day MA at the 1.03786 level. Yesterday it closed above this level (and the 100 day MA) for the 1st time since April 2nd. A move and close below this level today will reverse the longer term bias back to the downside.
  • The price has also fallen below the 38.2% of the move up this week (at 1.03647 – see hourly chart below).

With the rally up over Wednesday and Thursday, the sellers still have some hurdles to overcome to wrestle firm control of a downside bias. Specifically,

  1. Move below the underside of the broken trendline at the 1.0351 (see daily chart)
  2. Move below the 50% of the weeks range at 1.03382 (hourly chart below)
  3. Move below the 100 hour MA (blue line) at the 1.03347 level (hourly chart below)
  4. Move below the 200 hour MA (green line) currently at the 1.0316 level ((hourly chart below)

If this is accomplished, the pair has potential for a more substantial momentum move to the downside next week. Traders looking for more momentum to the downside, will be looking for the 200 day MA to provide sellling pressure (at 1.0378) and for a close below this level today.