Details of the preliminary Markit US PMI for August:
- Lowest since October 2013
- Prior was 53.8
- Output at 53.7 vs 55.3
- Output at lowest since Jan 2014
- Employment 52.2 vs 53.8 prior
- Lowest since July 2014
- Full release (pdf)
Note that the Reuters survey had a slightly higher consensus at 54.0.
So far in August manufacturing data, the Empire Fed was dreadful and the Philly Fed was slightly higher. This is the first national reading.
There has been a tiny bit of US dollar weakness on the report and stocks are at fresh lows with the S&P 500 down 21 points.
Lowest since Oct 2013
If the Fed hikes, they're making a huge mistake. Fed funds are down to a 34% chance of a hike because everyone is a dove when faced with 120 point peak-to-trough decline in the S&P 500.
Highlights from the press release:
- "Some survey respondents cited a cyclical slowdown in new business growth, as well as heightened uncertainty regarding the demand outlook in August."
- "Subdued export sales remained a drag on new business intakes in August."
- "New work from abroad decreased for the fourth time in the past five months, with a number of firms attributing the decrease to competitive pressures related to the stronger exchange rate."
In terms of manufacturing, the Richmond Fed is due Tuesday, durable goods orders Wednesday and the KC Fed on Thursday.