National Australia Bank business confidence and conditions for April

National Australia Bank business confidence for April, 3

  • prior was 3

National Australia Bank business conditions for April, 4

  • prior was 6

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Conditions dip, confidence unchanged on the month

More:

  • Capex index +6 (prior was +9 in March) to be just above the long run average
  • The employment index is -2 (vs 0 prior)
  • Trading (down from 11 to 10) and profitability (down from 8 to 5) also lower in April

NAB comment

  • Changes in conditions varied considerably across industries in the month, with the recovery in the "bellwether" wholesale industry proving short-lived and dropping back into negative territory
  • Construction also deteriorated, but remained positive, while mining was less negative
  • Both the exports and orders index remain soft, while capacity utilisation and capex each eased back
  • RBA likely to keep rates on hold "for some time" unless unemployment moved beyond the forecast peak of 6.4 per cent in late 2015
  • Next most likely rates move would be up, but the eventual raise will be "very data dependent"
  • "We currently expect the first hike to be very late in 2016"