• Employment Change February: 47.3k ……… expected 15.0K, prior 18.0K, revised from-3.7K
Australia - employment change 13 March 2014

You will recall me saying that this is a volatile data set … +47,300 … sheesh …

  • Unemployment Rate February: 6.0% …… expected 6.0%, prior 6.0%
  • Full Time Employment Change February, 47.3k …….. prior was +2.7k, revised from -7.1K
  • Part Time Employment Change February,-33.3k ….. prior was +15.3k, revised from +3.4K
  • Participation Rate February, 64.8% …………. expected is 64.5%, prior was 64.6, revised from 64.5%

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HUGELY POSITIVE DATA

  • Huge jump in employment, comes in at triple expectations
  • Huge jump in full time employment
  • Participation rate higher but unemployment rate steady

Get ready for the nitpickers … but this is HUGE

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OK … here comes some nitpicking:

  • the Australian Bureau of Statistics has cautioned that new jobs panel contributed to change in February; figures of a 37% contribution to lift in employment
  • “The incoming rotation group for February 2014 had a higher proportion of employed persons and persons in the labour force (i.e. less persons not in the labour force) than the sample it replaced. This incoming rotation group contributed, in original terms, 37% of the increase in total employment and 29% of the decrease in persons not in the labour force in February 2014. The trend estimates provide a better measure of the underlying level and direction of the series especially when there are significant rotation group effects.” Bolding mine
  • OK, so t isn’t as strong as it appears …. but nevertheless it is still strong
  • A comparison of the ‘trend’ estimates vs. seasonally adjusted from the bureau:
trend estimates versus seasonally adjusted 13 March 2014 Australia employment report
Australia employment figures comaprison trend seasonally adjusted 2 13 March 2014

By looking at the ‘trend’ estimates rather than the seasonally adjusted, the result is not as strong. It is still positive, but not as much as the headline data would have us believe.

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AUD response … well, take a squizz (Australian for “look”) at yer charts. marked up immediately.

There are bids down through 0.9000 now, with many still to cover, so moves down will be a grind. I’ll be back with an updated orderboard for some levels ASAP.