The building permits data from Australia is a very volatile data set ArticleBody
For the December results due today 0030 GMT:
- expected -7.6% m/m, prior +11.7%
- expected +11.5% y/y, prior +17.1%
Via ANZ:
We think new housing approvals fell sharply in December, unwinding most of November's jump.
This decline is likely to be concentrated in Victoria, as an element of payback after apartment approvals leapt to a record level in November.
Looking through the monthly volatility, we still believe the trend outlook is positive for both building approvals and construction activity in 2018.
Via Westpac:
- Dwelling approvals posted a surprise surge in Nov, up 11.7% vs expectations of a decline. The result was driven by an extraordinary spike in Vic high rise approvals that more detailed data shows centred on the CBD, Docklands and Southbank. While not down to one single 'mega project', the spike almost certainly relates to a handful of very large projects in the inner city.
- Approvals across the rest of Australia were much weaker, down 2.0% in the month following Oct's 8.3% drop.
- There looks to be some residual strength in the Vic market, with site purchases - a reasonable lead indicator for high rise activity - up in 2016-17 but still well below their 2015 peak. That said, Nov high rise approvals were an extreme high well above the state's previous peaks.
- As such, with conditions softening across other markets and segments, there is a risk of a sharp correction lower in Dec. We expect an 8% pull back, but a double digit monthly fall is plausible
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