National Australia Bank October business survey
Business conditions come in at a monster 21 ... a huge jump m/m
- prior 14
- 21 is a record high for this indicator (began in 1997)
- Long run average is 5
Business confidence 8
- prior 8, revised from 7
NAB chief economist Alan Oster (bolding mine, Oster just sounding a note of caution)
- Overall, results from the Survey indicate that the business sector in Australia is very strong at present, which is having positive spill-overs into the labour market and investment
- this is an extremely strong result and of itself would suggest abetter than expected performance for the economy.
- However, it is unclear just how long conditions can remain at these record levels given that the result was driven by a surprise jump in manufacturing, while some of the leading indicators such as forward orders - which have been giving a more accurate read on the strength of the economy - have actually softened a little in recent months.
- Less upbeat readings on business confidence may also be telling, with firms previously indicating that uncertainty around the outlook for their business is holding confidence back. That said, even before the spike in October, trend business conditions have consistently held up well above average levels in the past two years
Some of the sub measures in the survey:
- Sales up 11 points to +30
- Profitability up 9 points to +26
- Employment at 7 (unchanged on the month)
- Forward orders down2 on the month (4 in September to 2 in October)
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National Australia Bank's survey of more than 400 firms