Article on Stephen Roach in the Australian Financial Review

Stephen Roach is ex of Morgan Stanley

It was a while ago I used to read his stuff, but if I remember correctly Roach could teach today's crop of perma bears a thing or two :-D

Anyway ....

  • Warned that commodity-exporter Australia is in "denial" about the "double whammy" hit from China's shifting economy
  • Said Australians were underestimating the negative consequences of weakening commodity demand as China's economy transforms from being driven by investment in fixed assets and exports to domestic consumption

Says

  • "For the nations that were banking on China staying the course of the old manufacturing commodity-intensive investment led growth model, I think there will be a lot of disappointment"
  • "The new growth dynamic is slower, services intensive and commodity-light rather than commodity heavy."
  • "Australia is right on the leading edge of being in denial about what this shift means for China's claim on global commodity markets"

In denial? No we're not :-D