Q4 2016 inflation data from Australia
Q4 CPI - The 'headline': 0.5% q/q ... comes in well under the expected
- expected +0.7%,
- prior was +0.7%
For the y/y, 1.5 % ... under the expected
- expected 1.6%, prior 1.3%
-
The 'trimmed mean': 0.4% q/q ... under the expected
expected 0.5%
prior 0.4% q/q
For the y/y: 1.6% ... in line with the consensus median expectations
expected 1.6%, prior 1.7%
-
'Weighted median': 0.4% q/q ... under expected
expected 0.5%, prior was 0.3%
For y/y: 1.5% ... higher than expected
- expected is 1.4%, prior was 1.3%
--
No sign of inflation moving back into the RBA target band (the band is 2 to 3% over the course of the cycle) ... The RBA pays most heed to the 'trimmed mean', which is why its bolded above.
- The trimmed mean came in under expected for the q/q although the y/y is in line
If you are looking for reasons for an RBA hike this data does not provide any (OK ... maybe the non-tradables do just a tiny bit):
The tradables component fell 0.1% this quarter
- (Price changes for the goods and services in this component are largely determined on the world market)
- Over the last twelve months, the tradables component rose 0.1%
The non-tradables component rose 0.8% this quarter
- (Price changes for the goods and services in this component are largely determined by domestic price pressures)
- Over the last twelve months, the non-tradables component rose 2.1%
Srsly ... rate hike? Fuggedaboudit
--
just a note on my descriptions of the results .... when inflation comes in under expectations I don't call that a miss. Call me old fashioned but paying more for stuff is not a 'beat' IMO :-D