I had the headlines out on Twitter already (be sure to be following us, @ForexLive
Employment Change : -29,700 (expected +15.5K)
Unemployment Rate: 6.1% (expected 6.1%)
- Full Time Employment Change , +21.6K
- Part Time Employment Change, -51.3K
- Participation Rate, 64.5%
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Lots of drama around this release, if you haven’t been following it, check this out: Economists quickly shift Australian employment report expectations on revision news
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Today’s result, if it is to be believed, is weak.
Keep your eye on the trend:
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AUD/USD sold on the poor result, down about 40 points and just back above 0.8800 as I type.
USD seemingly the main influence on it in the overnight.
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There is more commentary from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on the data here
Main points from them (very briefly, the comments are lengthy):
- Over recent months key labour force series, when seasonally adjusted using previously observed seasonal factors, have exhibited unusual volatility
- The ABS has been unable to determine a definitive cause of this change in seasonality
- It could have resulted from one or more factors including changes in ‘real world’ labour market behaviour, changes in the timing and content of the supplementary survey program (run in conjunction with the Labour Force Survey), the introduction of web-forms, the introduction of the new labour force questionnaire, or refinements to collection procedures
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- The trend series, which reduce the impact of the irregular component of the seasonally adjusted series, can provide a better basis for analysing the underlying behaviour of the series. The original series have not been revised.
Taking their advice, here are the trend estimates:
