Australia – Westpac Leading Index for October, 0.0% (to another decimal point its +0.03%)
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute (MI) Leading Index is a composite index based on nine economic indicators, which is designed to predict the direction of the economy.The data is compiled from economic indicators related to consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.
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Comments from Westpac:
- The six month annualised deviation from trend growth rate of the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index which indicates the likely pace of economic growth three to nine months into the future rose from –1.20 % in September to –0.25 % in October.
- Ninth consecutive month where the growth rate in the Index has been below trend
- Follows thirteen consecutive months to February this year when the growth rate was above trend
- The index continues to indicate that we can expect growth in the Australian economy to stay below trend in the final quarter of 2014 and into the first half of 2015
- However the near 1ppt improvement in the negative deviation, on face value, gives some cause for optimism that momentum might be lifting sometime in the June quarter
- An improved growth profile is certainly consistent with Westpac’s own view of certain key sectoral dynamics