The Australia Q3 capex data is here
Westpac response (economist Andrew Hanlon). In brief:
- Q3 capex surprised to the downside materially
- Plans for 2015/16 improved a little but remain weak ... The outlook for business investment is weak.
By industry:
- Mining, -10.4%
- Services, -9.2%
- Manufacturing, 6.9%
Policy makers can take some comfort that capex plans were upgraded in this update, although only modestly, and that the upgrade was evident for services and for equipment. Arguably, you may expect further upgrades in coming months given the strengthening of conditions across the services sectors and mindful that firms have the flexibility to commit to equipment spending with shorter lead times. In our view, business investment in 2015/16 is unlikely to be as weak as suggested by the capex survey at present but recognise that investment remains a downside risk to our growth forecasts.
Hanlon adds Westpac have "revised down our forecast for Q3 GDP, we are now at 0.7%qtr, 2.1%yr"