Inflation data for Q4 is due at 0030GMT from Australia

CPI Headline:

  • expected 0.4% q/q, prior 0.4%
  • expected 1.7% y/y, prior 1.9%

Trimmed mean (a core measure)

  • expected 0.4% q/q, prior 0.4%
  • expected 1.8% y/y, prior 1.8%

Weighted median (also a core measure)

  • expected 0.5% q/q, prior 0.3%
  • expected 1.7% y/y, prior 1.7%

While waiting, previews posted earlier:

And, if you're down this far, quickie from Daiwa:

Despite the relatively solid performance of the economy, Bloomberg's survey suggests that the market

expects headline inflation to drop a further 0.2ppt to 1.7%Y/Y, which would be a two-year low. Meanwhile, the average of the RBA's favoured core measures - the trimmed mean and weighted median - are expected to remain steady at 1.7%Y/Y and 1.8%Y/Y respectively,

i.e. still below the bottom of the RBA's 2-3% target range for annual inflation.

And, via NAB:

  • Our forecast suggests limited upside risk to market consensus for Headline CPI of +0.4% q/q. Both our top-down and bottom-up models suggest inflation softened in Q4, in large part due to petrol prices (a force set to have an even bigger impact in Q12019).
  • This is despite the impact of unusual one-off factors that weighed on Q3 CPI (ie. childcare subsidy). It's worth noting that Q3 is generally a strong quarter, with a number of fees/costs being set on 1 July. Our below-market forecast largely reflects the decline in fuel prices, lower fruit prices and the weak price growth in rents and new dwellings.

Risks to our forecast are centred on:

  • the ever-volatile prices of fruits and vegetables;
  • softness in rents and new dwellings (15% of the CPI basket),
  • whether pressures to contain energy prices were effective, and;
  • the extent of discounting in motor vehicles and household goods.