Data due from Australia today include net exports as a percentage of GDP, for the second qurter of 2018

This is a number that will feed into the GDP

  • Q2 GDP is due tomorrow, hence the focus

Expectations for the exports contribution to GDP is low, says NAB: 'we expect … no contribution to growth from Net Exports'

More, this via ANZ, also downbeat on exports:

  • We expect net exports to make no contribution to growth in Q2 after the 0.3ppt add in Q1. Underlying the flat result, we expect export volumes to have risen 2.0% and import volumes to be 1.5% higher.

Westpac are also not to hopeful, albeit expecting some positive contribution:

  • For the June quarter, net exports are expected to be a positive, albeit making a smaller contribution than in Q1, at a forecast 0.1ppt.
  • Export volumes advanced by an estimated 0.6%, including gains across services, rural goods and resources, partially offset by a dip in manufactured items
  • Imports were broadly flat, we estimate, with weaker services (associated with rising prices) offsetting a rise in goods.

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A topside surprise should see a better bid for AUD while a downside one will just add to the current gloomy sentiment.