Australian labour market report out earlier today, ICYMI:
And:
- CBA has changed its RBA rate cut forecast also, from February to April
- ANZ no longer forecasting an RBA rate cut next week
- Market probability of an RBA rate cut next week has been slashed
- More on the Australian jobs report (the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell)
- AUD marked higher on the lower unemployment result from Australia
CommSec, a local securities firm related with CBA comments on the report - these in brief from a longer note:
- jobless rate was 5.07 per cent, the lowest result since February 2019 (4.96 per cent). And that February figure was the lowest in almost 8 years - 4.92 per cent in June 2011
- jobs are being generated - and being created by enough to push the jobless rate lower
- while more people are looking for jobs, indeed they are actually finding positions.
- The Reserve Bank indicated that interest rates would fall further if the jobless rate rose. Well, the jobless rate is falling rather than rising, suggesting that official rates may be left unchanged - at least for now.
- Some may say that the job figures are weaker than they appear because job creation was centred on part-time positions. But ahead of the signing of the US-China 'Phase one' trade deal it is likely that many businesses would have been cautious - employing part-time staff until there was clarity on trade.
- While there is still the inflation data to be hurdled next Wednesday, financial markets have scaled back the chances of a February rate cut from 60 per cent to 25 per cent since the release of the jobs data.
bolding above is mine
