0030GMT on Thursday 19 November 2020 will bring the Australian employment report

  • Employment Change: expected -27.5K, prior -29.5K

  • Unemployment Rate: % expected 7.1%, prior 6.9%

  • Full Time Employment Change: K prior was -20.1K

  • Part Time Employment Change: K prior was -9.4K

  • Participation Rate: % expected 64.8%, prior was 64.8%

What to expect via ANZ:

  • With JobKeeper cut back from late September, we expect employment to have fallen 40k in October, with the unemployment rate rising to 7.2%.
  • Outside Victoria, many businesses no longer qualify for JobKeeper, so this is where the weakness will likely be concentrated.
  • The reopening of regional Victoria and the light at the end of the tunnel for Melbourne restrictions should prevent further substantial employment losses within Victoria.

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With another Australian state going into a lockdown next month we'll get the impact in the November numbers.