Expectations for Q1 economy growth in Australia are low and based on government spending. Awesome.
Survey expectations have centred on expected at 0.5% q/q and 1.8% y/y
The latest update for expectations I've seen are from Westpac, looking for slightly above consensus but still a low result, and even the low results is not from much too positive:
- largely due to public spending (and) inventories
On the private sector side:
- +0.23ppt from net exports.
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I mentioned earlier that too-tight monetary policy (the RBA have missed on one of their mandates for more than 3 years, a poor showing indeed) is a contributor. But most of the blame is with government policy makers. They have been in government for 6 years without doing much at all. As a band-aid they ramped up government spending ahead of the election (funny that). And who knows, the alternative government may have even been worse!
Not here to speculate on might have beens from the government though.
So, for today, let's see if we get a topside surprise. That'd be welcome. Or a downside surprise, not so much. For the AUD - markets will be looking for how the result will impact on RBA thinking. The RBA tells us they are focusing on labour markets. Slow growth is not a positive for jobs market growth, so bear that in mind today.