Australia - Q4 price indexes for imports and exports

  • Imports expected +1.5% q/q, prior -1.6%
  • Exports expected +2.0% q/q, prior -3.0%

Westpac provide a great preview, split into a look at import prices and then those for exports:

Q4 Import price index

  • Prices for imported goods were little changed over the past year, edging 0.4% lower, notwithstanding a drop of 1.6% in the September quarter. Roll forward to the December quarter, import prices likely took a step higher, increasing by a forecast 3.5%.
  • The cost of imports rose as the Australian dollar dipped in the final quarter of 2017, a move which has since been reversed. In Q4, the Aussie fell almost 3% to average US76.8¢ and declined by the same magnitude on a TWI basis.
  • In addition, the bill for fuel imports rose as global energy prices increased in the period.

Q4 Export price index

  • The sharp rebound in export prices during 2016 and into early 2017 was punctuated by meaningful falls in the June and September quarters (-5.7% and -3.0%), as commodity prices eased back from recent highs.
  • In the December quarter, global commodity prices took on a more resilient tone. In the period, the RBA commodity price index increased by 2.9% in AUD terms and was broadly flat in US dollar terms.
  • For Q4, we expect export prices to increase by 2.7% and be 2% higher than at the end of 2016.
  • The terms of trade for goods, on these estimates, declined by 0.8% in the quarter, to be 2.5% below the level of a year ago.
  • As to prices for services, an update will be available with the release of the Balance of Payments on March 6

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