Seems to me like the economists are falling all over themselves to post high forecasts for employment gains in the March data. Census hiring will be good for about +100K, economists say while a recovery from bad weather should add another 100k. The wild card, as far as the economists are concerned, is the real hiring in March.
The consensus is for a 190,000 jobs, but whisper numbers are far higher. With US financial markets shut tight for Good Friday, it is anyone’s guess how the market will react.
My guess is that with US rates trending firmer in recent weeks, interest rate differentials will take center stage, so strong data will be good for the dollar and vice versa. . With the market leaning in favor of a strong number, it may be setting itself up for disappointment…