Before the RBA monetary policy decision today we get AUD data - trade balance preview

Trade balance for March is due prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia announcement, data at 0130GMT, RBA at 0430GMT.

RBA previews:

• RBA preview - markets have a 50/50 split on these two options

More can be found here:

• RBA monetary policy decision on Tuesday, RBNZ on Wednesday - what to expect

OK, for the March trade balance:

• expected AUD 4480m surplus
• prior AUD 4801m surplus

Background to this release is that March often sees weather (cyclons) related halts to iron ore exports. And, for 2019 we saw first shipments of LNG from the Prelude operation (might be in the March figures, might be in April so a bit of an export number wild card)

Preview via ANZ:

• We expect the trade balance to have deteriorated slightly to a surplus of AUD4bn in March. This was driven by both an expected increase in import values and a decrease in export values. Higher oil prices are the main driver of our expectation of increased imports. Exports are expected to be softer in March as a result of lower iron ore volumes from the impact of Cyclone Veronica.

ASB:

• A record trade surplus of $4.8bn was recorded last month as Australian imports posted a solid fall. We expect a smaller - but still solid - $3.8bn surplus in March. A step-up in the iron ore price in April will support the trade balance next month.