WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the second and final
section of the text of the summary of the
latest Beige Book survey of economic conditions, published Wednesday:
Loan volumes were either flat or down slightly in most Districts.
Consumer loan demand moved lower according to respondents in Cleveland,
Chicago, and Kansas City, and it held steady in New York and San
Francisco. However, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond,
Chicago, and Kansas City all noted an increase in mortgage refinancing
activity given lower mortgage rates and Cleveland also noted continued
strength in auto lending and increased demand for business loans.
Meanwhile, business loan demand was described as down somewhat in
Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City and was little changed
in most other Districts. Loan standards were described as still tight
for many classes of borrowers. That said, several Districts indicated
that strong competition among banks for high quality borrowers was
leading to lower rates and fees for these customers. Agriculture and
Natural Resources. Contacts generally reported that crop conditions at
harvest were less favorable than a year ago, although results varied by
and within Districts. Lower yields than a year ago were reported for
major crops in the Chicago, Minneapolis, and Dallas Districts and in
most of the Kansas City District. Even so, yields were large enough to
alleviate worries about shortages. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices moved
down, while some contacts noted higher prices for cotton. Drought
conditions persisted in the Atlanta, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts,
and pastures were in worse shape than a year ago in many areas. Although
there were declines in feed costs, poultry and livestock producers
remained pressured by drought and the cost increases of the past year.
Hog, poultry, and dairy prices decreased, while cattle prices increased.
Still, agricultural prices tended to be higher than a year ago,
boosting farm incomes outside of drought-stricken areas. Chicago and
Kansas City reported higher agricultural land values. Activity in
energy-producing sectors strengthened in the Cleveland, Minneapolis,
Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts. Atlanta reported a
decrease in off-shore operations in the Gulf of Mexico due to Tropical
Storm Lee. Cleveland and Atlanta also anticipated increased capital
investments in oil and gas production, since new technology has lowered
costs and boosted output. Contacts in Minneapolis reported plans for
expanded wind generation of electricity. Mining activity in the
Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts was strong.
Employment, Wages, and Prices. Respondents indicated that labor market
conditions were little changed, on balance, in September. Several
Districts cited only limited and selective demand for new hires.
Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Kansas City all noted that
firms in some sectors that were hiring more broadly (such as
manufacturing, transportation, and energy) were also experiencing
difficulties in finding appropriately skilled or qualified labor.
Respondents in the Boston, Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts
indicated that hiring was being restrained by elevated uncertainty or
lower expectations for their future growth. New York reported that
deteriorating business conditions in the finance industry had led to a
pull back in hiring with some layoffs anticipated in the months ahead.
Richmond and Chicago reported reduced seasonal hiring in retail trade
given apprehension about the strength of holiday sales, while New York
indicated that seasonal hiring was likely to increase. Most Districts
reported that wage pressures remained subdued. Exceptions were generally
for workers with specialized skills or in areas where firms were having
difficulty finding workers.
For instance, Atlanta and San Francisco cited wage gains for
workers with specialized skills, such as in information technology,
Minneapolis reported wage increases in the energy industry, and
Cleveland noted higher wages for truck drivers. In addition, contacts in
Minneapolis and Cleveland noted increases in non-wage costs such as
healthcare. Most other cost pressures moderated in September. Although
Kansas City and San Francisco reported increases in raw material costs,
most Districts reported a general decline in commodity prices, including
prices of oil and industrial metals. Many Districts indicated that there
continued to be some further passthrough of past increases to wholesale
prices. Though retail contacts noted a hesitation to increase prices
with demand still weak, many Districts reported increased pass-through
of costs in the retail sector, particularly for food and cotton-based
goods.
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** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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