WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the the text of the Federal
Reserve’s Beige Book survey Seventh District summary, published
Wednesday:
Summary
Economic activity in the Seventh District improved in March, and
contacts indicated that consumer and business confidence were on the
rise. Manufacturing continued to lead the way, while consumer and
business spending also increased and credit conditions improved.
Construction, however, remained weak. Price pressures were small on
balance. The spring weather resulted in good progress toward normal
planting conditions.
Consumer spending
Consumer spending increased in March. Retail sales continued to
improve, with the rate of increase accelerating some in late March. As
in the previous reporting period, the strongest performance was for
sales of nondurables and necessities with some improvement in sales of
durable and luxury goods. Auto sales increased substantially in recent
weeks. Dealers noted an increase in showroom traffic as more serious
buyers were being lured in by favorable pricing and credit terms.
Furthermore, dealers also reported that new incentives from Toyota were
helping to offset some of the decline in their sales in February. The
pace of tourism activity increased slightly with hotel occupancy rates
rising due in part to cuts in daily rates, especially at luxury hotels.
Business spending
Business spending also increased from the previous reporting
period. Contacts indicated that with overall inventory levels still
relatively low, some inventory rebuilding was occurring in retail trade
as well as manufacturing. In a further sign of rising business
confidence, capital expenditures on equipment and merger and acquisition
activity were also noted to have increased. Labor market conditions
improved slightly from the previous reporting period. Several
manufacturing contacts added overtime or additional shifts, and were
beginning to consider adding more employees with business conditions
continuing to improve. Demand also continued to be strong for temporary
workers with a large staffing firm reporting that billable hours had
increased substantially. Some permanent hiring was noted in
manufacturing and retail trade; however, in general, hiring remained
limited with many firms still wary of adding employees.
Construction/real estate
Construction activity remained weak in March. Residential
construction was limited, and contacts noted downward pricing pressure
as builders continued to try to compete against short sales and
foreclosures in the resale market. Credit was still tight for
developers; but a few smaller builders reported that they had been able
to secure financing for homes that were expected to be occupied
immediately. Demand for single-family homes increased some in recent
weeks with more purchase contracts being signed before the expected
expiration of the homebuyer tax credit in April. Demand remained weak
for nonresidential construction. The overhang of vacant facilities and
excess retail space dampened demand for new commercial and industrial
construction, and contacts reported continued downward pressure on
commercial rents. Credit conditions were also still tight for commercial
real estate, although a contact cited very slight improvement in credit
availability in recent weeks for higher quality properties.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing picked up in March, and contacts indicated business
confidence was on the rise. Orders increased, particularly in recent
weeks, stemming in part from the restocking of inventories. Contacts
also reported that production schedules were beginning to firm into the
second half of 2010 and viewed this as a sign that some pent-up demand
was being released now that the economic outlook was improving and less
uncertain. The auto industry remained a strong source of growth, as did
the pharmaceutical, mining, and energy sectors. Activity in the steel
industry continued to improve, and a contact noted that they were having
a hard time meeting demand with the capacity currently on-line. Export
activity also remained strong with developing countries providing a
boost to demand. In contrast, business conditions for manufacturers with
strong ties to construction were weaker, although a contact did note a
small increase in the demand for construction equipment. Credit
availability for suppliers and distributors remained a concern for
manufacturers, with contacts noting an increase in requests to extend
payment periods beyond the customary 30 days. Several contacts did
indicate, however, that bank credit seemed to be more available now than
in the recent past.
Banking/finance
Credit conditions improved from the previous reporting period.
Banking contacts again reported improvement in consumer and business
loan quality, although credit quality for many smaller firms continued
to decline. The pipeline for new loans was still relatively weak. Many
upper middle market firms were said to be making due with cash reserves,
holding back on borrowing. However, contacts indicated that this may
change going into the second half of 2010 as some higher quality
borrowers were already beginning to make inquiries now that economic
conditions were improving. Credit spreads narrowed for a number of
District firms, and volatility declined across financial markets. In
addition, contacts reported that liquidity continued to improve. An
exception was the repo market where volume was still very low and
bid-ask spreads wide by historical comparisons.
Prices/costs
Price pressures were small on balance in March. Contacts indicated
upward pressure on prices for plywood, industrial metals, and
petroleum-based fuels, although natural gas prices remained at
historically low levels. In contrast, retailers reported no significant
change in wholesale prices. Wage pressures were minimal. However, an
increase in healthcare costs was noted. Pass-through of cost pressures
to downstream prices was limited.
Agriculture
The District should have normal planting progress this year, as
field conditions were better in March than contacts had anticipated
previously. Snow cover melted gradually enough and rains were spaced out
enough to avoid major flooding in the District. Farmers in most areas
started catching up on field work that was left undone last fall,
especially fertilizer applications. There was also harvesting of fields
left standing over the winter. Blending together poor and better quality
corn minimized problems with the feeding and storing of corn, but some
farmers were still stuck with lower quality corn. More acres of corn and
soybeans were expected to be planted than a year ago, as fewer acres of
wheat were planted. Corn and soybean prices were up slightly during the
reporting period, while wheat prices declined. Hog and cattle prices
increased, but milk prices decreased.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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