WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the Beige Book report on
economic activity by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, published
Wednesday:
THIRD DISTRICT – PHILADELPHIA
Business activity in the Third District has returned to a path of
slow overall growth since the previous Beige Book. Following unusual
weather disruptions from an earthquake, a hurricane, and a tropical
storm during late summer, the region was visited again, this time by
a rare early season snowstorm. The weekend storm caused widespread
electric utility outages and disrupted business, but the cold weather
ultimately triggered shoppers’ interest for the winter season. Since
the last Beige Book, manufacturing activity has grown modestly, but
steadily. Retailers reported renewed growth in year-over-year sales.
Motor vehicle dealers experienced strong year-over-year sales growth;
however, Thailand’s recent widespread flooding has caused another
supply disruption of auto parts. Third District banks have reported
slight growth in loan volume outstanding since the last Beige Book. On
balance, new home sales continued below year-ago levels, while
construction activity strengthened since the last Beige Book. Reports
from commercial real estate contacts were more mixed by sector and
location, but slightly positive overall. Service-sector firms reported
generally modest growth. Price pressures remained contained for most
sectors but continued to strain profit margins in all but a few sectors.
Most Third District business contacts had already lowered their
expectations over the past few months V projecting slow to flat growth
through year-end. Ongoing uncertainty since the previous Beige Book has
not significantly altered their outlook. Manufacturers still expect a
modest rise in shipments and orders during the next six months.
Retailers are hopeful for stronger sales, and auto dealers are
uncertain; both have lean inventory plans. Most banking and residential
real estate contacts had lowered their expectations before the last
Beige Book. Commercial real estate contacts and service-sector firms
continue to plan for slow growth; however, uncertainty has increased.
Manufacturing.
Since the last Beige Book, Third District manufacturers have
reported modest increases in new orders and shipments. However, the
improvement was uneven across and within sectors. Steady, modest growth
was reported by various firms that supply or serve manufacturers. These
firms expect continued overall growth from their manufacturing clients,
despite citing ongoing small factory closures. Firms experiencing growth
often cited business returning from China and India, or other market
share gains. Other firms cited growth from Marcellus shale gas activity
or from new product launches. Factors cited as impeding growth included
underfunded public infrastructure, work going to China and India, and
ongoing political uncertainty. The makers of food products, lumber and
wood products, and primary metals reported declining product demand.
Much of their decline is seasonal; they retained positive expectations.
Third District manufacturers expect business conditions to improve
during the next six months, despite persistent uncertainties. Since the
last Beige Book, the general outlook has improved substantially, with
few firms expecting a decline, while most are divided between no change
and some increase. Expectations of capital spending and future hiring
have nearly doubled among area manufacturers.
Retail
Third District retailers reported October sales gains compared with
September as well as with year-ago levels. Cold weather and an early
snowstorm triggered buying of sweaters and other cold weather gear.
Prospects for holiday sales vary with the market segment. High-end,
online, and outlet retailers are most optimistic. However, a concern was
expressed over supply disruptions to some consumer electronics from the
flooding in Thailand. Beyond the holiday season, a conventional mall
retail contact expects sales to be down in 2012 from 2011, while an
outlet mall contact anticipates new mall openings in the fall of 2012
and in 2013.
Auto sales continued to grow steadily in October, according to
Third District auto dealers. The sellers’ market also continued boosting
profits as used cars remained scarce and as supply disruptions are
recurring for Honda and Toyota, this time from Thailand’s floods.
Inventories remained lean. Pent-up demand for Japanese models may delay
a return to normal price competition until well after supply has
normalized.
Finance
Third District bankers have reported slight overall growth in loan
volumes since the previous Beige Book. However, one banker described
margins being squeezed as banks compete for share in a flat market.
Another indicated they were picking up loans as foreign banks retreated
from the market. Prompted by low interest rates, the strongest loan
growth occurred in commercial real estate, home equities, and home
mortgages, especially refinancings. C&I lending was flat. Credit quality
continues to improve but at a slower rate. Among Third District bankers
interviewed in November, business plans for 2012 assume further modest
loan growth and challenging competition within markets.
Real Estate and Construction
Residential building activity has increased somewhat since the
previous Beige Book, while reports on existing homes sales indicated no
change. Existing sales remain lower than last year’s levels. Large
print ads recently touted record low interest rates, low prices, and
high affordability, possibly prompting the flurry of activity noted by
one New Jersey builder. Buyers selected mostly a range of mid- to
high-priced build-to-suit homes. These price points were also strong for
a Pennsylvania builder as were lower-priced multifamily townhomes aimed
at move-up and entry-level buyers. One builder noted that producers of
many construction materials have shut down and that the supply stream
will require 12 to 18 months to start up again after demand for
residential construction picks up. There is no change in the relatively
weak outlook among builders and real estate agents.
Nonresidential real estate sectors reported mixed results with
leasing strength in select markets but few gains in construction.
Investment interest has strengthened in multifamily properties, while
leasing activity grew for trophy office space (desired by large legal
firms) and for research facilities (for new and expanding biotechnology
firms). Demand for retail space continues to weaken. Public
infrastructure spending remains low. Beyond generally weak demand, an
architect cites regulatory burdens for permits and financing as
barriers. New construction or renovation plans are mostly limited to
institutional, life sciences, multifamily, and warehousing sectors in
select markets. Some construction activity for warehousing represents
site relocations within the three-state region. Construction/maintenance
work has also slowed in advance of three anticipated oil refinery
shutdowns. The overall outlook for demand of nonresidential space is for
continued slow growth.
Services
Third District service-sector firms have reported modest growth
since the last Beige Book. Advertising was noted as a little soft with a
particular weakness in retail. Freight volumes continue to grow,
reaching pre-recession levels, according to a logistics firm. Staffing
firms indicated that demand is slowing and that virtually all new
placements are on a temporary or contract basis, rather than permanent,
full-time hires. High-skilled workers, ranging from welders to new hires
with business intelligence skills, remain in short supply. Staffing
contacts expected little or no improvement by years end; one was also
less bullish for 2012.
Prices and Wages. Few price changes have been reported since the
previous Beige Book. One broad business sector supplier announced
widespread price hikes for early December. Pricing power remains
favorable for freight shippers and auto dealers. Most other sectors
report very tight margins, although cost factors have generally remained
flat. A few exceptions include cotton products for retailers and drywall
for builders. Many bankers, builders, and leasing agents continued to
report expectations for concessions from borrowers, buyers, and renters,
respectively. Staffing firms reported no upward pressure on wages.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$]