WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the Federal
Reserve’s Beige Book survey Sixth District summary, published Wednesday:
SIXTH DISTRICT – ATLANTA
Summary.
On balance, Sixth District business conditions appear to have
improved modestly in April and May. Most retail contacts continued to
experience increased traffic and sales, and their outlook remained
generally optimistic. Reports on tourism were also generally positive;
however, considerable uncertainty was expressed about the potential
impact from the Gulf oil spill and the recent floods in Tennessee.
Overall, homebuilder and Realtor reports suggested that the pace of new
and existing home sales slowed somewhat, whereas commercial construction
contacts reported ongoing weak conditions. The District’s manufacturing
and transportation segments extended their previous gains in new orders
and production. By most accounts, bank credit conditions remained tight.
Firms across several sectors reported increasing hours worked of
existing staff and expanded the utilization of temporary hires. However,
firms generally remained reluctant to add permanent staff. According to
manufacturers and homebuilders, transportation and material costs rose
slightly, but they did not plan to pass these increases along to
customers.
Consumer Spending and Tourism.
Most retail merchants reported continued improvement in traffic and
sales, and a slight increase in confidence among consumers in April and
May. Despite the uptick in sales, retailers continued to keep their
inventory levels relatively low, preferring instead to have more
inventories held at the wholesale level. The outlook among retail
contacts was positive with the majority expecting continued sales growth
over the next couple of months. Vehicle sales increased from weak
year-ago levels, with foreign brands experiencing the strongest demand.
The tourism sector continued to improve. Hospitality contacts in
Atlanta, Miami, Nashville, New Orleans, Orlando, and Tampa all noted
hotel occupancy rates above the national average. Business-related
travel and convention bookings were up and future bookings looked
strong. Convention hotel contacts began noting some pricing power.
Cruise-line bookings were gradually trending up and many were able to
increase prices slightly. Similarly, contacts in the restaurant industry
experienced a modest increase in activity and projections for the
near-term were optimistic.
However, the recent Gulf oil spill and the floods in Tennessee have
tempered the outlook in those areas. Contacts indicated that the
potential impact on the tourism industry along the coastline of
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida could be
substantial. In some cases, vacation lodging cancellations have been
replaced by bookings from clean-up crews, laborers, and the National
Guard. The Nashville area is expected to see a decline in
tourism-related receipts because of damage to several tourist venues
there. The near-term outlook among hospitality contacts varied greatly,
reflecting the high level of uncertainty.
Real Estate and Construction.
District homebuilders reported that new home sales growth softened,
but remained positive on a year-over-year basis. Most of the weaker
reports came from contacts in Florida who noted a relatively sharp
slowing in sales growth. The pace of construction activity weakened as
well and was described as being roughly even with a year earlier. Most
homebuilders commented that tax incentives had been a major driver of
sales in most markets, although access to financing remained a
significant challenge. The outlook among residential builder contacts
weakened from the previous report but remained slightly positive
overall.
Realtors indicated another modest improvement in existing home
sales in April compared with a year earlier. However, on a
month-over-month basis, responses from contacts showed that sales
softened slightly. Realtors reported that high-end home sales exceeded
their year-earlier level for the first time since early 2006. Inventory
levels were described as similar to a year earlier, and home prices
stabilized. The outlook for sales over the next several months remained
positive but was a little less upbeat than recent reports.
The majority of commercial contacts reported that the pace of
development was still well below year-earlier levels and construction
backlogs were down sharply. Most noted that limited access to financing
and weak demand continued to constrain activity. The outlook for
commercial construction activity for the rest of the year remained weak.
Manufacturing and Transportation. A majority of District manufacturers
noted increased levels of new orders and production in April compared
with March. Most firms also reported plans to expand production levels
in the short-term. Freight demand continued to improve from weak
year-ago levels. Trucking contacts in the District noted an increase in
business. However, they were uncertain whether the improvements
reflected reduced capacity in the transportation industry or an overall
increase in demand. Regional rail shipments were up notably for
automotive, chemical, and other raw industrial materials.
Banking and Finance.
Banking contacts reported that credit standards remained stringent
but that credit was readily available for borrowers that met the
stricter requirements. Bankers also cited increasing foreclosure rates,
bankruptcies, and loan delinquencies in several markets.
Employment and Prices.
Although overall payroll employment levels appear to have increased
across much of the District, many businesses still reported that they
had a strong preference for increasing the hours for existing staff and
using temporary staff rather than hiring fulltime employees.
District manufacturing and homebuilder contacts cited increases in
commodity prices and transportation costs in April and early May.
Several businesses reported that supply chain capacity constraints were
responsible for some of the price increases. However, little of these
cost increases were expected to be passed on to consumers as lower labor
costs continued to relieve pressure on business balance sheets, and most
firms said they faced intense competitive pressures.
Natural Resources and Agriculture.
Late April’s large oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has had little
immediate impact on District oil production. However, industry contacts
expressed concern about the potential impact on future production if
stricter regulations restrict drilling activity. Following the spill,
supply vessels were able to reach existing rigs without interruption,
and refinery operations were not disrupted significantly. Gulf Coast
crude oil and gasoline stocks remained near the top of their seasonal
average for this time of year. The regional fishing industry reported a
significant reduction in activity, as fears of water contamination and
safety concerns prompting bans on both commercial and recreational
fishing in zones affected by the spill.
In early May, severe rainfall flooded parts of central Tennessee.
According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s weekly
crop survey, Tennessee farmers reported moderate to severe damages to 39
percent of the state’s corn crop and 21 percent of winter wheat. Damages
to fruit and vegetable crops and nursery stock have also been reported,
as well as significant destruction of farm infrastructure. Elsewhere in
the District, recent rains generally improved soil moisture conditions
and crop production.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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