–Sees Growth Weak Through H1 2012; Scope To Boost QE Purchases
–Sees Still Scope To Bring Down Yields At Long End
LONDON (MNI) – Business surveys suggest that the UK recovery likely
stalled in the final quarter of this year, Bank of England Chief
Economist Spencer Dale has said.
In a speech here, Dale said his view was that growth was likely to
“remain very weak during the first half of next year, before gaining
some traction thereafter as the squeeze on households’ real incomes
comes to an end”.
But Dale warned that this depended on the euro zone being able to
implement a “credible and effective response” to the crisis.
“Failure to do so, poses the single biggest threat to our
recovery”, he continued.
Dale insisted that the BOE had scope to boost QE purchases if
needed and said that there was still room to bring down yields at the
long end of the curve.
“There is certainly scope, if necessary, for us to increase our
programme of asset purchases. Indeed, there are more gilts outstanding
now than when we first started QE in March 2009,” he said.
A more real limit on QE could be posed if credibility in the
programme waned, he warned.
“The more binding constraint might be if the credibility of asset
purchases started to be questioned. But that is likely to depend on the
economic circumstances rather than the scale of purchases per se”.
–London Bureau; Tel: +4420 7862 7492; email: dthomas@marketnews.com
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