LONDON (MNI) – Analysts, on balance, do not expect the Bank of
England’s Monetary Policy Committee to hike Bank Rate until 2011, and
are split over whether the tightening will come in the first or
second quarter.
The following table summarizes Market News’ rate expectations
survey – with responses obtained from Friday through Wednesday.
Analysts’ most frequent, or ‘modal’, forecast was for the first rate
hike in Q2 next year.
The left hand column of the table shows their expectations in
quarters ahead with, for example, a hike in Q4 this year shown as 2. On
this basis the median forecast is for a hike in Q1 next year.
!Time ! Size ! Level ! Level! Level ! Date !
!Date ! Direction! Of ! Of ! of ! of !
!Next ! Next ! Bank ! Bank ! Bank ! Next !
!Bank ! Bank ! Rate ! Rate ! Rate ! Move !
!Rate ! Rate ! Bank ! End ! End H2! In !
!Move ! Move ! End ! H1 ! 2011 ! Bank !
!Qtrs ! bps ! 2010 ! 2011 ! ! Rate !
!Ahead! ! ! ! ! !
————————————————————————
Median forecast 3 25.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
High forecast 7 50.0 1.5 2.5 2.5
Low forecast 1 25.0 0.5 0.5 0.5
Modal Forecast 4 25.0 0.5 0.75 2.5
————————————————————————
Number responses 26 22 31 24 28
————————————————————————
4Cast 4 50.0 0.5 1.00 2.0 Q2-11
ABN Amro 3 25.0 0.5 1.50 2.5 Jan-11
Allied Irish Bank n/a n/a 0.5 n/a 1.0 n/a
Barclays Cap. 3 n/a 0.5 1.50 2.5 Feb-11
BNP Paribas 7 n/a 0.5 0.50 0.5 Q1-12
BoA-ML 4 25.0 0.5 0.75 1.25 May-11
Capital Economics n/a n/a 0.5 0.50 0.5 n/a
Citi 4 25.0 0.5 0.75 n/a Q2-11
Commerzbank 4 50.0 0.5 1.00 1.75 Q2-11
Credit Suisse 2 n/a 1.0 n/a 2.5 Oct-10
Daiwa n/a n/a 0.5 n/a n/a n/a
Deutsche 3 25.0 0.5 1.00 1.5 Feb-11
Fortis 3 25.0 0.5 1.50 2.5 n/a
Global Insight 4 25.0 0.5 0.75 1.75 May-11
Henderson New Star 1 25.0 1.5 2.50 2.5 Aug-10
ING 5 25.0 0.5 0.50 1.25 Q3-11
Investec 3 25.0 0.5 n/a 2.0 Q1-11
Jeffries 4 25.0 0.5 0.75 1.0 May-11
JP Morgan 4 25.0 0.5 0.75 1.5 May-11
Lloyds 3 25.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 n/a
Monument 3 25.0 0.5 n/a 1.5 Q1-11
Morgan Stanley 3 n/a 0.5 1.5 2.0 Q1-11
NAB 4 25.0 0.5 0.75 1.25 May-11
Nomura 2 25.0 0.75 1.25 1.5 Nov-10
RBS 2 50.0 1.0 n/a n/a Nov-10
Schroders 4 25.0 0.5 0.75 1.75 May-11
Soc. Generale 3 50.0 0.5 1.5 2.5 Feb-11
Stone McCarthy 2 25.0 0.75 1.0 1.5 Nov-10
Sumitomo Mitsubishi 4 50.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 May-11
Tullett Prebon n/a n/a 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a
UBS 3 25.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 Mar-11
Westpac 4 50.0 0.5 1.0 n/a May-11
————————————————————————
For more information contact UK editorial on 44-20-7862 7492 or e-mail:
drobinson@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]