Views on the politics to play out up to the vote on December 11 in the UK parliament
Barclays on the vote and sterling:
- we think risks for GBP remain asymmetric around the UK Parliament vote
- A rejection of the Withdrawal Agreement by a wide margin is likely to see significant GBP potential downside of 5-10%
- while a tight margin should see the withdrawal deal getting ratified eventually, and the pound rising towards 1.33.
Macquarie, but nothing directly on GBP:
- odds are still stacked against the Brexit deal succeeding at the first attempt
- our base case remains that a second attempt ... may be required in January
- We judge that PM May would willingly depart if doing so ensured safe passage
- However, a stunt like this would be unlikely to make a major difference to the voting arithmetic.
- A hard no-deal Brexit still seems unlikely … given the lack of preparation for this scenario
- Chaos and a deep recession would likely ensue, and could persist until trade flows are restored
(bolding mine)