Canadian November 2019 retail sales data

  • Prior was -1.2% (revised to -1.1%)
  • Ex autos +0.2% vs +0.5% expected
  • Prior ex autos -0.5% (revised to -0.4%)

The headline is strong but the ex-autos number is more important and it's a drag despite the positive revision. Overall, I think the market was leaning towards some weakness here and this is a solid report.

Details:

  • Motor vehicle sales and parts +3.8%
  • Furniture +0.3%
  • Electronics/appliances -19.9%
  • Building materials +5.0%
  • Food and beverage +3.1%
  • Health and personal care -2.6%
  • Gasoline stations +3.1%
  • Clothing -0.3%
  • General merchandise stores +2.1%

The electronics/appliances number is a massive drop but note that it's up 1% year-over-year so there might be some timing issues here. Black Friday also fell late in the month. Perhaps importantly, BOC Governor Poloz highlighted that Statistics Canada is having some difficulty counting online sales that originate in the US and are shipped to Canadian consumers. So if anything, higher online sales indicate the Canadian consumer is healthier than this report indicates.

In the FX market, the Canadian dollar strengthened slightly after the data and touched the best levels of the day, but only fractionally. USD/CAD last at 1.3125, essentially unchanged on the day.