Canada third quarter GDP data
- Largest quarterly gain on record
- Prior was -38.7%
- GDP +8.9% y/y vs -11.3% in Q2
- September GDP +0.8% m/m vs +0.9% expected
- August GDP +1.2% m/m
- Sept GDP -3.9% y/y vs -2.9% exp
- Aug GDP -3.8% y/y
- Full report
- Housing investment +30.2% q/q and +10.3% y/y
- Household spending +13.0% vs -13.6% in Q2
A $381.6B deficit doesn't buy what it used to.
Inventories were a drag as companies drew down $33.1, leaving the stock to sales ratio at the lowest since Q4 2018. That should be a tailwind in upcoming data.
The household savings rate also remains extremely high at 14.6% but down from a record 27.5% in Q2. Before the pandemic, it was at 2.0% in Q4 of last year.
The report is also a reminder that estimating GDP down to 0.1 pp is a fool's errand. Canadian benchmark revisions moved GDP from 3.17% to 3.04% for 2017, and revised up from 2.01% to 2.43% for 2018, and from 1.66% to 1.86% for 2019.