Canada Labour Market Report for July is due at 1230GMT on 10 August 2018
- The headlines to watch are Change in Employment
- expected +17K, prior +31.8K
And Unemployment rate
- expected 5.9%, prior 6.0%
And, of course there will be more, of particular interest is hourly earnings.
These previews via:
CIBC:
- According to the Labour Force Survey, employment gains have been hard to come by in 2018. But separately released payrolls data reveal a more positive view of hiring over the first five months of the year. We'll side with the latter, expecting the Labour Force Survey to add to June's employment gains with another healthy print, and continue closing the gap between the two surveys.
- Alongside a slight decrease in the participation rate, which bounced higher in the last release, the unemployment rate should tick back down to 5.9%.
RBC:
- We are projecting a trend-like 12K gain in employment in July after a 31.8K increase in June.
- That gain was driven by a 27.2K increase in construction and 46.6K in goods industries overall, with the latter expected to fall 10K in July. This should be offset by a 22K boost on the services side, however. Education services should be closely watched since it is more volatile in July through September as summer lay-off/hiring patterns have changed (no directional bias).
- The mammoth 75.6K increase in the labour force in June should be modestly offset (-10K) in July and - along with the employment gain - lead to a dip in the unemployment rate back below 6% (5.9%).
- Wage growth has been quite strong in this report in 2018 - last at 3.5% y/y for permanent workers - though the BoC's preferred wage-common metric more heavily weights measures from the national and productivity accounts, as well as the establishment employment survey.