Canada's central bank optimist-in-chief is due at later today.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will deliver a speech at 11:30 am ET (1530 GMT) and follow it up with a press conference at 1700 GMT. The topic of the speech is 'The Way Home: Reading the Economic Signs'. (live video here)
Poloz has been doggedly positive since cutting rates in late January. Scotiabank outlines how rate cut expectations have fallen after each of his latest appearances.
The other buzz today is about the potential for the Bank of Canada to signal a willingness to change its inflation target.
BOC mandates renew every 5 years and the latest one expires in 2016. Bank of Canada researchers have floated the idea of a higher inflation target and there is some talk Poloz could do the same today.
The result would mean Poloz could keep the overnight rate lower but long-end yields might move higher in anticipation of greater inflation. The knee jerk is to see a lower BOC rate as CAD-negative but you could argue it either way and I might be inclined to argue it's bullish.
In any case, I highly doubt Poloz will tackle the issue today. When talk about the inflation target flared up last week, BOC spokesmen set up to crush it. All communications on the target renewal have stated that the "bar for changing the agreement is high," said Jill Vardy, the central bank's chief of communications in hastily emails to reporters.
Still, the market is jittery. All the talk today is about US 10-year yields rising 4 bps to 2.28% but Canadian 10s are up 14 bps to 1.86% today.
In any case, the only guarantee with Poloz is plenty of hand-wagging.
