Not much in the way of economic data today in Asia.

The regular Thursday international transactions data from Japan, due 2350GMT

Plus NAB's business confidence and conditions indicators from Australia ... not the monthly survey but the Q4 survey. The quarterly survey has a larger sample size and asks more detailed questions.

  • The monthly have been trending positively, they're a closely watched indicator at the RBA.
  • A couple of weeks ago we got the "December" business confidence and conditions from NAB ... from a survey actually conducted on January 15! Confused? Yeah, fair enuff.
  • Anyway ... for today, no 'expectations' from the market, but prior for confidence was zero
  • Due at 0030GMT

And, finally ... for the central banker activity ... Reserve Bank of New Zealand Assistant governor McDermott speaks, due at 2230GMT:

  • titled Forward guidance in New Zealand at an event in Sydney, Australia

Then again from the RBNZ at 0420GMT - Head of Prudential Supervision Toby Fiennes will present a speech:

  • Taking Stock and Looking Ahead - about how market discipline fits within the RBNZ's approach to regulating financial entities
  • Speaking in Auckland

The RBNZ is going to very annoyed by the rise in the NZD.

On Tuesday I wrote in my RBA (yes, RBA) preview that the bank was going to acknowledge the positive developments in the local economy but stress the risks from developments offshore. Which, if I do say so myself, was exactly what we got. The reason for this? The RBA does not want a rising AUD.

DOES

NOT

WANT

Got that?

The analysts out there ate it up, I saw plenty of analysis on the 'dovish', 'easing bias' of the RBA. Which is b/s, chaps. The emphasis on the risks was an attempt to keep a lid on the currency. And, overnight ... all it took was a bit of stability in the oil price and hey presto - AUD buyers climbing over each other to pay those offers.

Now its true that a central bank doesn't always get what they want, but they're gonna try. The RBNZ is in exactly the same situation, they do not want a rising NZD. So, if there are comments on the NZD dollars from the RBNZ speakers today you can bet they'll be to the bearish side.