The monthly national index from the Chicago Fed
- Prior was 4.11 (revised to 5.33)
- Personal consumption and housing 0.02
- Employment 0.38
- Production and income 1.09
- Sales, orders and inventories -0.31
The June reading was a long-term high but the index is beginning to normalize. A reading of zero represents trend growth so even 1.18 is above trend; of course, that's coming off a record -17.91 decline in April. Still, at this point you would like to see an elevated reading in the hopes that all the unemployed will be pulled back into the economy but it looks like that's going to be a longer process as the pandemic continues.
