China trade balance .... not good ... data is here
But ... to save you a click:
China trade balance: $ 60.24bn
- expected is $48.00bn, prior was $43.03bn
Exports: Fall 5.5% y/y
- expected is -6.6%, prior was -8.3%
Imports: Fall 13.8% y/y
- expected is -7.9%, prior was -8.1%
Liu Xuezhi, a Shanghai-based macro-economy analyst at Bank of Communications Co. (quoted from Bloomberg report):
- "China is set to miss its export growth target for this year
- Will be no help from the external demand side for economic growth
- China's modest yuan devaluation has yet to show any effect on exporters
- The government is already trying hard to boost infrastructure spending, and that will be more important than exports for overall growth"
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As well as the calls for more government help for the economy, I'm also hearing calls for more yuan devaluation already
- But ... at the G20 we were told the devaluation is over for now
- Also, hints of more devaluation will exacerbate capital flight pressures
But, it looks obvious that more yuan devaluation must be coming ... and as long as the PBOC resists we can expect more depletion of their FX reserves as they step into buy yuan to support it.
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Rock, meet hard place.