Tom Fitzpatrick and his team over at Citibank issue some of the best analysis pieces around. They are mainly technical in nature but they take price action and market news into account, they compare and contrast with other markets and they put price levels on their views.
They have been medium-term bullish and short-term bearish on the EUR/USD for some time now. Their short-term bias is now switching and they see a very real danger of a spike higher, similar to the one seen about 4 months ago. I have been waiting for a suitable time to go long EUR/USD as I feel that it is in a rough 1.30/1.37 consolidation phase and that the danger is for another sharp relief rally before the down trend recommences.
I am starting to build a long EUR/USD position to go along with my small long AUD/USD position. I feel that the AUD may well underperform in the current climate, but I will persist for the moment.