The early part of the week was dominated by the idea that the global economy would struggle its way out recession by the second half of 2009, increasing demand for commodities, pushing up interest rates and stabilizing emerging market currencies. That notion has run into trouble today with recover still seen a long way off. Commodity prices are reflecting those fears today as a test of the downtrend established during the summer rejected prices and has sent the commodity complex to the downside today. Keep an eye on the CRB as a risk barometer; when rising, risky assets will be in demand and when falling, they will be sold.
