Canadian working age population stagnant
North Cove Advisors deconstruct the idea that Canadian population growth is underpinning the housing market.
We reported earlier this week that Canadian house prices rose 5.4% y/y in June and were up 15.8% y/y in Vancouver and 12.3% in Toronto.
"Canada's working-age population (15-64 year-olds) is growing at the slowest pace on record, a paltry 0.4 per cent or just one third of the long-term average," they note.
Stripping out the non-home-buying young and old is an interesting way to frame housing. Seniors may buy homes but it's usually to downgrade.
They chart housing starts as a multiple of the number of people added to the working-age population.
Betting against Canadian housing has made fools out of many economists but eventually they'll be proven right. With Canada on the brink of recession, that time could be close.