As the year winds to a close the focus shifts to the forecasts for next year
Deutsche Bank is the latest with yet another 2016 call and this one is for USDJPY
In 2016 they see a year end high of 128.00 but don't see a runaway dollar next year and the key point is that the dollar will only remain supported if the Fed delivers a bullish statement on the economy along side a hike. They also see an average in 2017 lower than 2016
They say buying dips and selling on rallies is their play through next year;
""We forecast the USD/JPY will be 128 at end-2016. However, even though interest rate hikes will likely continue in 2017, we believe that the USD/JPY average rate that year could be lower than in 2016," DB projects.
"We think that Japanese investors and importers will continue to buy USD on dips and provide support to the USD/JPY at the rate around 120. If so, buying of USD/JPY on dips at these levels and gradually selling for taking profits in the rally should remain effective tactics,"
I like their thinking and strategy as I'm in the camp that says we get a dovish Fed hike and a temporary top and/or period of consolidation
eFX has the note from Ze German bank and you can get more here