Or perhaps maybe it is something in between?
The ECB policy meeting decision later should not bring about much surprises, with the central bank set to keep policy steady while reiterating a similar message to December.
Instead, it will be ECB president Christine Lagarde's press conference thereafter that will intrigue markets today. Is she going to play her part as the so-called owl?
Let's try and look at what is up in the air at the moment going into the key risk events later.
Economic outlook
A lot of focus will be on how Lagarde interprets the recent green shoots observed in euro area economic data. Is she going to go with a glass half full approach or perhaps be more cautious with a glass half empty view? Or maybe something in the middle?
Ultimately, her spin/focus on this will be the one that gives markets a sense of how the ECB is viewing things at the moment and may breathe some hope into the euro currency.
I reckon she will no doubt acknowledge the recent improvement in economic data as well as global developments, considering the US-China trade deal - but not get too overboard - and she should reaffirm a more cautious view on inflation.
Strategic review
I highly doubt Lagarde will offer too much in terms of what to expect moving forward from the ECB as she will continue to allude to the strategic review process before giving a firm view/opinion on how monetary policy will develop moving forward.
In that regard, she is likely to reaffirm the need to be more vigilant and also keep a lid on top of the issues that the ECB will be addressing in the strategic review.
As such, there could be comforting words in terms of the economic outlook but it will do little to drive longer-term ECB pricing since markets will get very little clues about what the central bank wishes to focus on in the year ahead.
Summary
In short, there is a potential for Lagarde to tilt slightly more hawkish given recent economic developments. It will be a question of whether she will decide to focus on that in such a way or brush it all aside with a few cursory words.
If anything else, just keep an eye out on her language/tone but don't expect any near-term moves in the euro to signify anything about ECB policy for the time being.
Instead, tomorrow's euro area flash PMI releases may be more interesting and significant for the euro currency if Lagarde really plays her part as the owl she claims to be.
