ECB June monetary policy meeting decision coming up later today
Happy Thursday, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we look to get things going in the session ahead. Global trade tensions remain the main talking point as we begin the day with US and Mexico reportedly unable to reach a compromise after trade talks yesterday.
That has helped the yen gain some strength early on amid weaker Treasury yields to begin the day. Looking ahead, we'll have a couple of economic data points to move things along but the key focus in the European morning will be the ECB meeting.
0600 GMT - Germany April factory orders data
Prior release can be found here. A look into industrial orders in Q2, which should continue to suggest weaker factory activity relative to a year ago. A minor data point.
0730 GMT - Germany May construction PMI
Prior release can be found here. An indication of construction activity in the German economy, which has held up relatively well despite the slowing down in the manufacturing sector. The release here feeds into sentiment surrounding domestic economic conditions.
0900 GMT - Eurozone Q1 final GDP figures
The second estimate can be found here. As this is the third and final look, it should do little to offer a fresh perspective surrounding the Eurozone economy. As such, reaction to the data release should be muted.
1130 GMT - US May Challenger job cuts, layoffs data
Prior report can be found here. The data provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs by industry and region and acts as a general labour market indicator.
1145 GMT - ECB monetary policy meeting decision
The key focus on the session but I wouldn't expect the statement to offer up anything major. Markets will mainly be watching for any details regarding TLTROs and/or rate tiering as Draghi will later just reaffirm some downside risks and possibly slight downgrades to the ECB's economic projections. As for the key details in the statement i.e. balance of risks and forward guidance, those are expected to remain the same.
1230 GMT - ECB president Mario Draghi press conference
Draghi will communicate the central bank's latest economic projections and they are expected to include downside risks should global economic developments continue to slow. That said, watch out for his language on how confident they are in believing that the economy will rebound in 2H 2019 and where inflation is headed towards. That will ultimately determine where the euro trades but I don't see how much of a different tone he can offer up from the April monetary policy meeting.
That's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!